2014-08-25: Spatial regression analysis on 32 years of total column ozone data

Multiple-regression analyses have been performed on 32 years of total ozone column data that was spatially gridded with a 1×1.5 resolution. The total ozone data consist of the MSR (Multi Sensor Reanalysis; 1979-2008) and 2 years of assimilated SCIAMACHY ozone data (2009-2010).
The two-dimensionality in this data set allows us to perform the regressions locally and investigate spatial patterns of regression coefficients and their explanatory power. Seasonal dependencies of ozone on regressors are included in the analysis. Recovery of ozone is identified globally. However, recovery rates and uncertainties strongly depend on choices that can be made in defining the explanatory variables. The application of several trend models, each with their own pros and cons, yields a large range of recovery rate estimates. Overall these results suggest that care has to be taken in determining ozone recovery rates, in particular for the Antarctic ozone hole.

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