EU-Confidence Case data

Borssele case studies

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Backgroundinformation

EU-Confidence

Borssele case studies

The nuclear power plant near Borssele is located at 51°25´51˝N, 3°43´06˝E (see Wikipedia).

Case studies for Borssele will be performed for a few different scenarios:

Scenario date  
Easy 11 Jan 2017 Test set deterministic
Borssele 1 ensemble
Frontal passage 12 Jan 2017 Borssele 2 ensemble
Meteorological lagged ensembles have been constructed from archived data from the Harmonie-AROME model.

The Easy scenario

In the Easy scenario meteorological uncertainties are small and the wind is blowing to the East.

Test dataset

A first dataset to test the suitability for all the used models consists of the deterministic forecast from Harmonie-AROME with standard settings for the 06 UTC run of 11 Jan 2017. Time steps are hourly up to T+48.
Harmonie-AROME code values can be found through the link on the right.

The data were originally created in FA format on a Lambert grid. For day-to-day operations these data are converted to WMO-GRIB format on a regular 300x300 lat/lon grid from 49.000˚N — 55.877˚N and 0.000˚E — 11.063˚E. These data are archived for later use.
The data that are supplied are the lat/lon GRIB data as archived. Moreover, the data are also converted to NetCDF for convenience.

Ensemble

A lagged hybrid ensemble was created starting on 6 UTC on 11 Jan 2017 with a total length of 72 hours. This is described in detail through the links in the menu on the right.

The Borssele-2 scenario

For the second scenario we have been looking for more variation in wind direction, especially during the time of the release. The passage of a front around 18 UTC on 12 Jan 2017 seems a suitable candidate.
The meteorological ensemble forecast starts at 6 UTC on 12 Jan 2017 and has a total length of 60 hours. The release should take place between 15 UTC and 21 UTC on 12 Jan 2017.

We prepared an ensemble dataset, the same way as for the Easy scenario. This time, however, we omitted the confusing instantaneous precipitation parameters, rain, snow and graupel on model levels and surface. We only retained rain, snow and graupel at the surface, integrated over the past hour.

Hans de Vries, March 13, 2019