Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute; Ministery Of Infrastructure And The Environment

Publications, presentations and other activities
Future climate risk from compound events
2018
by J. Zscheischler (Universität Bern), S. Westra (University of Adelaide), B.J.J.M. van den Hurk (KNMI), S. Seneviratne (ETH Zürich),

Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a combination of interacting physical processes across multiple
spatial and temporal scales. The combination of processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant impact is referred to as a ‘compound event’. Traditional risk assessment methods typically only consider one driver and/or hazard at a time, potentially leading to underestimation of risk, as the processes that cause extreme events often interact and are spatially and/or temporally dependent. Here we show how a better understanding of compound events may improve projections of potential high-impact events, and can provide a bridge between climate scientists, engineers, social scientists, impact modellers and decision-makers, who need to work closely together to understand these complex events.

A PDF from this article may be obtained by an email to Bart.vandenHurk@deltares.nl.

Bibliographic data
Zscheischler, J., S. Westra, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk and S. Seneviratne, Future climate risk from compound events
accepted, Nature Climate Change, 2018.
Abstract (html)  Complete text (html)