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Projected changes in extreme weather in Africa under global warming
by M.E. Shongwe (KNMI), G.J. van Oldenborgh (KNMI), B. van den Hurk (KNMI), B. de Boer (KNMI), M. van Aalst (Netherlands Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre)C.A.S. Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil)
This study investigates likely changes in precipitation patterns in Africa under global warming. Monthly data from climate models prepared for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are used to compare the patterns of change in mean and extreme precipitation over different regions of Africa. 10-year return levels are estimated by inverting a Generalised Pareto Distribution fitted to excesses above (below) the 80th (20th) percentile in both the control and future (2050-2200) climate. The posterior distribution of future to control climate ratio of return levels shows the probable limits of the changes obtained from model projections. Over much of the equatorial regions of Africa (e.g. East Africa), there are indications for a wetter future climate. In the subtropical region (e.g. parts of southern Africa), there is evidence for drier future conditions. In the Sahel region of West Africa, future patterns of change are uncertain as the models give diverging projections.
|Shongwe, M.E., G.J. van Oldenborgh, B. van den Hurk, B. de Boer, M. van Aalst and C.A.S. Coelho, Projected changes in extreme weather in Africa under global warming |
Poster: EGU, 16/4/2007-20/4/2007, Vienna, Austria, EGU.Abstract (html) Complete text (pdf: 301 KB)