Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute; Ministery Of Infrastructure And The Environment

Publications, presentations and other activities
Rainfall generator for the Meuse basin: Simulation of 6-hourly rainfall and temperature for the Ourthe catchment
April 2001
by R. Wójcik (), T.A. Buishand (KNMI),
<p>This report presents a first study on the development of a<br /> stochastic weather generator for the Meuse basin which produces<br /> long-duration, multi-site time series of precipitation and<br /> temperature. By running these synthetic data through a<br /> hydrological/hydraulic model, it is expected to get a better<br /> insight into the likelihood of extreme river discharges in the<br /> Netherlands. This report is restricted to the Ourthe basin (3626<br /> km2). Time series of 6-hourly area-average precipitation of 3<br /> sub-catchments (Ourthe upstream of Hamoir, Ambl&egrave;ve and Vesdre)<br /> and average 6-hourly temperature at St. Hubert are considered.</p> <p>Simulation is done by nearest-neighbour resampling. Because of the<br /> intended application, the performance of the method is only<br /> assessed for the winter half-year (October-March). It appears that<br /> straightforward resampling of the historical 6-hourly values does<br /> not adequately reproduce a number of second-order statistics of<br /> precipitation and temperature. Particularly, the slow decay of the<br /> autocorrelation function of 6-h area-average rainfall is not<br /> preserved. The standard deviations of monthly rainfall and the<br /> quantiles of the multi-day winter maximum precipitation amounts<br /> are therefore underestimated. As an alternative, simulation of<br /> daily values with disaggregation into 6-h values using the method<br /> of fragments is studied. With this strategy a reasonable<br /> reproduction of the second-order statistics of rainfall and<br /> temperature is achieved. Moreover, there is a good correspondence<br /> between the historical and simulated distributions of the winter<br /> maximum precipitation amounts.</p>
Bibliographic data
Wójcik, R. and T.A. Buishand, Rainfall generator for the Meuse basin: Simulation of 6-hourly rainfall and temperature for the Ourthe catchment
KNMI publication: PUBL-196-I, ISBN 90-369-2198-8, 1/4/2001.
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