Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute; Ministery Of Infrastructure And The Environment

Publications, presentations and other activities
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
by G.J. van Oldenborgh (KNMI), S.S. Drijfhout (KNMI), A. van Ulden (), R.J. Haarsma (KNMI), A. Sterl (KNMI)C. Severijns (KNMI)W. Hazeleger (KNMI)H. Dijkstra (IMAU, University of Utrecht)
<p>The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate fluctuations. In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes continue to affect trends in projections for the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change.</p>
The trends in temperature in western Europe as the regression against (modelled) global mean temperature [K/K] in the observations and the GCMs with the most realistic mean circulation in Europe over 1950-2007. The contours denote the number of standard errors between the observed and modelled trends starting at z=2 (black) and z=-2 (red).

Bibliographic data
Oldenborgh, G.J. van, S.S. Drijfhout, A. van Ulden, R.J. Haarsma, A. Sterl, C. Severijns, W. Hazeleger and H. Dijkstra, Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
Climate of the Past, 2009, 5, 1, 1-12, doi:10.5194/cp-5-1-2009.
Abstract (html)  Complete text (pdf: 1 MB)