Publications, presentations and other activities
Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming
by M.E. Shongwe (KNMI), G.J. van Oldenborgh (KNMI), B.J.J.M. van den Hurk (KNMI), B. de Boer (Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU)), C.A.S. Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil)M.K. van Aalst (Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherland)
Likely changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa in response to changes in radiative forcing are investigated using an ensemble of global climate models prepared for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Extreme seasonal precipitation is defined in terms of 10-yr return levels obtained from a generalised Pareto model. The relative weights assigned to each member in the AR4 multi-model ensemble are derived from Bayesian statistics. A statistically significant shortening of the rainy season is projected over much of southern Africa. Over the western parts of southern Africa, an increase in the severity of dry extremes parallels a statistically significant decrease in mean precipitation during austral summer months. In East Africa, a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution is projected.
|Shongwe, M.E., G.J. van Oldenborgh, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, B. de Boer, C.A.S. Coelho and M.K. van Aalst, Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming |
Poster: Summer School on Climate Variability & Climate Change: Estimating and Reducing Uncertainties, 8/6/2009-17/6/2009, Budapest, Hungary.Abstract (html)